We’re Growing But Not As Fast, Census Shows

  • 02/9/17
  • |          Waterloo

WATERLOO REGION — Local population growth continues to slow, the new five-year census shows.

Waterloo Region’s population reached 535,154 when Canada’s 2016 census was conducted last May. That’s up 5.5 per cent over 2011. This number excludes university and college students from out of town.

It’s middling growth, exceeding the overall rate for Ontario and Canada, but the slowest local growth recorded in three censuses. To compare, the region’s population grew nine per cent between 2001 and 2006, and 6.1 per cent between 2006 and 2011.

“The region is showing consistent, healthy growth,” said Michelle Sergi, director of community planning for Waterloo regional government.

Since 2011, Waterloo Region has ranked 14th for population growth among Canada’s 35 largest urban areas. The region has the 10th largest population among those urban areas.

Census findings released Wednesday reveal new suburbs that are swelling, and also aging neighbourhoods that are shrinking.

At the edge of east Kitchener, Hannah Zwalf and her family are in the heart of a building boom, where the population has increased by 45 per cent over five years.

Zwalf moved to this region 18 months ago, from Winnipeg. Last May, she moved into her new home north of Fairway Road near the Grand River. There’s one unfinished house on her street. The park that borders her backyard is partly completed, edged with yellow tape. Not far away, a new public school is under construction.

“This is a big, family-friendly area,” said Zwalf, mother of two young children. “You’re near to everything here.” Her neighbourhood has seen the third-fastest growth across the region, adding 2,423 residents.

Her neighbour, Joe Bartlett, was surprised to see people camped out for two nights at a nearby model home last fall, angling for building lots. “The intensity, the demand is not something I’ve experienced before,” he said.

Young families aren’t the only ones moving into the fast-growing suburb. Ronald Shamaon retired to the street in July after selling his Mississauga home for more than it cost him to relocate to Kitchener.

“I moved here because I retired and I couldn’t afford to stay in Mississauga,” he said. He finds the area beautiful and not too crowded, with nice trails and businesses just five minutes away.

A new suburb in southwest Kitchener at Fischer-Hallman and Huron roads recorded the biggest population increase since 2011, adding 4,003 residents.

Other aging neighbourhoods are losing residents, the census reveals. A Waterloo suburb bordering on Benjamin Road lost 256 residents, down five per cent. A Kitchener neighbourhood bordering on Westheights Drive lost 240 people, a decline of seven per cent. A Cambridge neighbourhood near Hespeler and Avenue roads lost 170 people, down five per cent.

The census shows Canada has reached a population of just over 35 million, up five per cent over five years. Ontario has almost reached 13 million, up 4.6 per cent over five years.

Locally, the townships of North Dumfries, Woolwich and Wilmot recorded the highest growth rates since 2011, all exceeding 6.8 per cent.

Kitchener and Waterloo grew at comparable rates just above six per cent, while Cambridge recorded the slowest growth at 2.5 per cent.

For the first time, Wilmot Township now counts as part of the urban area, due to commuting patterns. This leaves Wellesley Township as the only local municipality outside the census metropolitan area designated by Statistics Canada.

Ontario has released competing population projections for this region that stretch to 2041. Governments use the projections to plan for roads, pipes, public transit and housing, among other things.

The higher forecast, enshrined in planning legislation by the Ministry of Municipal Affairs, projects this region at 573,000 residents in 2016. Governments have cited it to press for suburban housing constraints and to support the $1.1-billion launch of rail transit, a cost that includes fees and financing.

The lower forecast by the Ministry of Finance projects this region at 548,500 residents in 2016, citing standard demographics around how people live and die.

The census count at 535,154 residents falls between the two forecasts, after adding up to another 21,400 people to account for people typically missed by the census.

Extended to 2041, competing population projections for this region differ by 135,600 people, which is basically a city. “We’re monitoring our population closely,” Sergi said.

She’s not concerned that the region is falling short of the higher projection, saying that planning for the higher growth provides flexibility.

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